This Washington state SurveyUSA poll is excellent news for Joe Biden and not good news for Bernie Sanders.
Sanders needs a convincing win in the state of Washington to make up ground in the race for pledged delegates.
Here are the highlights of the poll:
* Biden, 36%.
* Sanders, 35%.
* Warren, who was included in the survey but who subsequently suspended her campaign, 10%.
* One of the other Democrats still on the ballot but no longer running, 13%.
* The nominal 1 point separating Biden and Sanders is not statistically significant.
* The contest should be characterized as even; Biden should not be described as leading nor Sanders as trailing.
* Because Washington allocates its 107 convention delegates proportionally, the ultimate popular vote win may be symbolic.
* Both Biden and Sanders would receive approximately the same number of delegates, should the candidates finish within a couple points of each other.
Among Democratic primary voters who have already returned a ballot (36% of those interviewed), Sanders has a head start and leads by 7 points. Sanders benefits from the fact that 1 in 4 of those who already voted chose someone who is no longer campaigning. Among voters who say they are 100% certain to return a ballot before the 03/10/20 deadline but have not yet done so (53% of those interviewed), Biden leads by 9. Among the small and squishier remaining voters who say they are almost certain to return a ballot, Sanders leads by 5. For Sanders to win the Evergreen State popular vote, he needs every one of the "almost certain" voters to find their ballot in a pile of un-opened mail, return it, and then go to a friend's house and get them to do the same.
The last bullet point is key.
Splitting delegates evenly or even a close finish between the two candidates doesn’t help the candidate who’s trailing. As an example, Biden could theoretically shut Sanders out in Mississippi and lose a close contest in WA and he would end up adding to his delegate lead.
This highlights how difficult it is to overcome even a small 60 - 80 delegate lead. Plus—the latest polls out of Michigan and Missouri show Biden leading, so no relief there for the Sanders campaign.